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Newbuilding cancellation, delivery delays and record shipbreaking "saved" the market in 2009
The latest annual report on the shipping industry, compiled and published by France’s Barry Rogliano Salles stated that thanks to cancellati** and delayed deliveries new vessels were less than expected and the fleet increased by only 7% in 2009, against a decline in seaborne trade of 3%. In his comments on the market, Mr. Jean-Bernard Raoust, Chairman of BRS said that “demoliti** reached 36 million dwt – taking us back to the records seen in the 1980s – while oil storage immobilized 6% of the tanker fleet, permitting the market, with the help of a harsh winter, to achieve higher rates by the end of the year. In the containership market, with around 10% of the fleet in lay-up, and with the introduction of slow steaming plus a series of tariff increases, the cost of transporting a box between Asia and Europe reached a level by year-end that no one would have expected at the start of the year. As for the dry bulk market, rates were kept afloat by the immense needs of China which increased its imports by more than 270 million tonnes in 2009 thanks to an insatiable demand for iron ore (+45%) and coal (+300%)” said Mr. Raoust.
As a result over the course of the second half of the year, the market found its fundamentals and the shipping industry began to regulate itself again, as is common in any cyclical market. In terms of the global economy, the banking system avoided collapse, money began circulating - sparingly but at historically low interest rates - and China made the most of the general disorder and the success of its stimulus plan to regain its health.
Although the second hand ships market started off slowly in 2009, in the end it was again quite busy, with a total number of transacti** ultimately similar to 2008, but as was already evident by the course of things at the final months of 2008, average prices were 40% to 50% less, compared to the highs of mid-2008. China emerged as the winner, as not only did it not reduce its shipbuilding capacity, but also became the largest buyer of second hand tonnage, ahead of Hellas. “China will be able to build a fleet at moderate prices – as Japan did 30 years ago – and thus better control the transport of the manufactured goods and raw materials that its industry so needs.
Meanwhile the crisis will accelerate the shift of the global centre of gravity towards Asia, an irreversible change that will inevitably reduce the maritime power of the western countries” said BRS.
Of course, the shipping industry isn’t yet out of the woods. According to Mr. Raoust, “newbuilding deferrals will only postpone the problem of overcapacity and the market must still absorb close to 40% of the existing fleet over the next three years (65% for the large bulkers). Faced with an economic recovery that most experts qualify as “soft”, these ships will long weigh on the market and its return to equilibrium. Furthermore, it is estimated that there are $150bn of newbuilding contracts not yet financed, out of a total orderbook worth $450bn. The current price of new and second hand ships should allow more healthy economic calculati**, and raise hopes of increased activity in the shipbuilding industry. However those vessels ordered or purchased at excessive prices are here to stay and will penalize heavily the profit and loss accounts of some shipowners” he said, adding that strong volatility in the shipping markets is going to remain the norm, for as long as the global is still on the recovery phase. |
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发表于 2010-3-16 16:25
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