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Guessing games
By Julian Bray
Wednesday 3 September 2008
LIES, damned lies and statistics, runs the old adage, and nowhere is that more applicable than in shipping. From figures for tonne miles and average freight rates to newbuilding orders and deliveries, the world of shipping has never suffered from a shortage of number-crunching. But when many of those figures are good estimates at best or misinformed assessments at worst, their impact on the real world can be damaging.
Accurate, quantitative assessments of markets — of the supply of resources and the demand for products — are an essential tool for the modern business. In the days of the traditional shipowner who kept receipts in a shoebox and filed accounts on the back of an envelope, detailed market measures were perhaps not important. What mattered then was experience.
But in the age of the modern MBA-educated, professional shipping executive, detailed market figures are vital. But how many can be trusted of the statistics that are produced these days?
Take for example, Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that $22.7bn of newbuilding orders could be cancelled over the next three years, potentially cutting around 29m dwt from the 407m dwt on order.
A fair guess it may well have been, but it met with an immediate barrage of criticism from brokers and shipbuilding analysts as being “too gloomy”.
Central to the criticism was that the newbuilding databases maintained by many financiers, analysts and brokers are simply not accurate, since extracting detailed newbuilding market data is extremely difficult in this notoriously publicity-shy business.
Analysis of past newbuilding forecasts compared with how many ships were finally delivered consistently shows underestimation of the orderbook by up to 5%.
Ironically, it is an example of statistics being used to show how statistics can be wrong.
But aside from any wry amusement such an analysis may provide, it proves a more important point: shipping needs and deserves more accurate market data.
Without this, many investment decisions will still be taken on a wing and a prayer. |
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发表于 2008-9-4 10:19
提升卡
变色卡
看起来好费劲啊
看的我眼花
你真是高手啊！~^_^
