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As energy paradigm has shifted from oil to gas, new orders for LNG carriers has increased that Korea’s large shipbuilders are expected to benefit from this.
Yang Hyung-Mo, analyst of Taurus Investment & Securities in Korea said on February 25 in a report named ‘Secure Cash Cow Under the Third Energy Revolution’ that in global LNG- carrier orderbook, Korea is standing on 68 vessels on order accounting for 80% of market share and new orders for LNG carriers are prospected to be placed at Korea's Big3 builders. Korea’s competitors, China and Japan, have 10.6% (nine vessels) and 9.4% (eight vessels), respectively, of market share.
Yang said that considering LNG carriers’ current tonnage, the number of newbuildings to be delivered and shipping volume, etc., a shortage in supply of LNG carriers is expected from 2015-2016; thus, at least 41 and at most 136 number of 170,000-CMB LNG carriers, on average, are to be additionally needed by 2016. Also, he anticipated that an average number of 104-269 170,000CBM LNG carriers will be needed by 2018.
Furthermore, the number of LNG carriers to be needed by 2016, estimated on the basis of LNG liquefaction plant (under construction, FID, FEED, Proposed phase), is 42 vessels at least and 130 at most.
The number of LNG project projected to firmed up within the first half of 2013 is around up to 28 vessels and average newbuilding prices per vessel is said to be $200m, however LNG carriers for Yamal project may cost $300m~350m per ship that a total of $8bn worth of LNG orders are anticipated just within the first half of this year. Yang explained that this represents the overall values contracted during just the first half year could outpace the annual amount of order in 2012.
Newbuilding projects for LNG carriers said to be sealed within the first half year are three LNG carriers from INPEX ($600m worth), six from NLNG ($1.2bn), three from Teekay ($600m) and 16 from Yamal project ($4.8-5.6bn).
In term of options, Samsung Heavy Industries of Korea is said to secure four vessels to be contracted before July, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering of Korea can book three within the first quarter of this year and Hyundai Heavy Industries of Korea has one to win within the first half year.
Newbuilding LNG-carrier contracts that were already signed up year-to-date are Samsung’s two 174,000CBM for GasLog and the shipyard also penned one LNG-FSRU from BW Maritime as well.
Meanwhile, Japan’s average prices of importing LNG, which has been a barometer of LNG prices, is anticipated to be firm in the long-term. Also, it is said that Japan’s LNG import in 2012 increased up to 87.18m ton, showing 11% increase from 2011’s 78.46m ton and this trend is expected to continue this year.
Published : February 27, 2013
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